A library learning 2.0 project
Seasonal Weather Forecast
Visiting with Dick Krech while waiting for Dick Jr to change the oil on our 1999 Chrysler 300M, Dick asked for my guess on the weather for this spring. Dick and his son own Riverside Repair in Finland, MN, on the west branch of the Baptism River. It's a good ol' boys (and girls) hangout, but unlike many small town auto repair shops, Riverside is not on Main St, and there is no bench to hangout and watch people go by. Main St. Finland is Highway 1. Next Saturday is St. Urho's Day, an annual parade and men in drag vying for the Miss Helmi title; not to be missed.
Dick knows I'm a certified meteorologist, and I report my daily observations for Little Marais online to the State Climatologist. I do have a feel for the seasonal changes along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
This past week, March 1-7, 2009, Dick Krech and the Postmaster at the Finland Post Office both observed minimum temperatures of -30F on two mornings. Wolf Ridge ELC just four miles east reported -14. I reported -9. The difference between inland at Finland, the top of Superior Ridge at Wolf Ridge, and the shore at Little Marais can be extreme. The fact that Lake Superior was at least 90 percent covered by ice on those cold days contributed to the subzero temperatures. Yesterday, March 6, the maximum temperature at Little Marais was 54F. Ice cover on Lake Superior extends only about 200 yards out from shore. Denise and I went walking on the ice on Thursday.
My guess about the season ahead combines recent experience living on the North Shore with an intuitive sense about current patterns. This coming Tuesday's forecast winter storm is right on with tradition; a State High School Hockey Tournament blizzard. The tournament starts Wednesday, and the Twin Cities is more likely to get a blizzard than the North Shore. The forecast models I use support a dumping here too. Also based on tradition, we can expect a State Basketball Tournament blizzard, but I call that the St. Patrick's Day blizzard. The St. Urho's Day parade usually is windy and cold, and that looks good a week out.
The overall pattern suggests a rapid warm up by the last week in March. The current pattern reminds me of the year when St. Peter, MN got wiped out by an unseasonably early tornado. Northern Minnesota should be on the watch this April too. The storm track that would bring violent weather this way in a few weeks is currently oriented from Kansas to Chicago, and then northward through Michigan. The storm this coming Tuesday will be violent, whether tornadoes to the south or a blizzard to the north.
Contributing factors: Sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is about 10 degrees colder than a year ago. The temperature of the Pacific off the coast of California also is cold. The Arizona to Texas and Oklahoma is hot already, and that heat will surge northward soon.
Dick knows I'm a certified meteorologist, and I report my daily observations for Little Marais online to the State Climatologist. I do have a feel for the seasonal changes along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
This past week, March 1-7, 2009, Dick Krech and the Postmaster at the Finland Post Office both observed minimum temperatures of -30F on two mornings. Wolf Ridge ELC just four miles east reported -14. I reported -9. The difference between inland at Finland, the top of Superior Ridge at Wolf Ridge, and the shore at Little Marais can be extreme. The fact that Lake Superior was at least 90 percent covered by ice on those cold days contributed to the subzero temperatures. Yesterday, March 6, the maximum temperature at Little Marais was 54F. Ice cover on Lake Superior extends only about 200 yards out from shore. Denise and I went walking on the ice on Thursday.
My guess about the season ahead combines recent experience living on the North Shore with an intuitive sense about current patterns. This coming Tuesday's forecast winter storm is right on with tradition; a State High School Hockey Tournament blizzard. The tournament starts Wednesday, and the Twin Cities is more likely to get a blizzard than the North Shore. The forecast models I use support a dumping here too. Also based on tradition, we can expect a State Basketball Tournament blizzard, but I call that the St. Patrick's Day blizzard. The St. Urho's Day parade usually is windy and cold, and that looks good a week out.
The overall pattern suggests a rapid warm up by the last week in March. The current pattern reminds me of the year when St. Peter, MN got wiped out by an unseasonably early tornado. Northern Minnesota should be on the watch this April too. The storm track that would bring violent weather this way in a few weeks is currently oriented from Kansas to Chicago, and then northward through Michigan. The storm this coming Tuesday will be violent, whether tornadoes to the south or a blizzard to the north.
Contributing factors: Sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is about 10 degrees colder than a year ago. The temperature of the Pacific off the coast of California also is cold. The Arizona to Texas and Oklahoma is hot already, and that heat will surge northward soon.
Comment
About
Badge
© 2009 Created by Aurora Jacobsen on Ning. Create a Ning Network!
You need to be a member of 23 Things on a Stick to add comments!
Join this Ning Network